Risk reward calculator
Risk reward calculator: the win rate you need to break even
This risk reward calculator shows the win rate you need to break even at any reward to risk. Enter your ratio, or your entry, stop and target, then add your win rate to see whether you have an edge and how big it is.
- Needs 33.33% to break even
- 1:2
- Needs 25% to break even
- 1:3
- Use entry, stop and target
- Prices
- No email, account or install
- Free
Risk reward calculator
1The trade
You aim to make 2 times what you risk on each trade.
2Your win rate
The share of your trades that hit the target. Your backtest will tell you.
Costs per trade
Spread and commission as a share of what you risk. A 1 pip spread on a 20 pip stop is 0.05R.
3What you need
Win rate needed to break even at 1 : 2
33.33%
Win more often than this and the trade makes money over time. Win less and it loses.
At 45% you have an edge
Your win rate is 11.67 points above break-even, making about +0.35R a trade.
Your edge per trade
+0.35R
Average result, in multiples of risk
Over 100 trades
+35.00R
At 45% and 1 : 2
Reward to risk you need
1 : 1.22
To break even at a 45% win rate
Break-even win rate by reward to risk
Common ratios
| Reward : risk | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 1 : 1 | 50%your win rate is below this |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40%your win rate is above this |
| 1 : 2yours | 33.33%your win rate is above this |
| 1 : 2.5 | 28.57%your win rate is above this |
| 1 : 3 | 25%your win rate is above this |
| 1 : 4 | 20%your win rate is above this |
| 1 : 5 | 16.67%your win rate is above this |
Green where your 45% win rate clears the bar.
Assumes every winner reaches the target and every loser hits the stop. Partial closes, breakeven exits and slippage change the real numbers, which is why a backtest beats a guess.
How break-even works
Bigger winners mean you can win less often and still break even.
Break-even win rate is 1 divided by 1 plus reward to risk. At 1:2, that is 1 divided by 3. So you need to win 33.33% of trades to break even before costs.
Anything above break-even gives you an edge. At a 45% win rate and 1:2 reward to risk, that is about 0.35R per trade, or 35R over 100 trades.
| Reward : risk | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|
| 1 : 1 | 50% |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40% |
| 1 : 2 | 33.33% |
| 1 : 3 | 25% |
| 1 : 4 | 20% |
- 1 : 1
- 50%
- 1 : 1.5
- 40%
- 1 : 2
- 33.33%
- 1 : 3
- 25%
- 1 : 4
- 20%
What the ratio does not tell you
A bigger target means little if your trades rarely reach it.
Targets change win rate
Move the target further away and fewer trades may reach it. The ratio cannot tell you how often.
Costs move break-even
Spread and commission reduce each result, so your break-even win rate rises.
Partials change the maths
Closing part of a trade early changes your actual reward to risk. Use your real results.
Backtest the real numbers
Your actual win rate at your chosen targets comes from testing the strategy.
Questions, answered
How do you calculate risk to reward?
Divide the distance from entry to target by the distance from entry to stop. Entry at 1.0850, stop at 1.0830 and target at 1.0890 means risking 20 pips to make 40. That gives a reward to risk of 1:2.
What win rate do I need for a 1:2 risk reward?
You need a 33.33% win rate to break even before costs. That means winning one trade in three. Your win rate needs to be above that level for the strategy to have a positive edge under the calculator's assumptions.
What is a good risk to reward ratio?
One your strategy can achieve with a win rate above break-even. A larger ratio is not automatically better because targets become harder to reach. For example, a 1:1 strategy winning 60% beats a 1:3 strategy winning 20%.
Does the calculator include spreads and commission?
Yes, if you enter them. Add costs per trade as a share of your risk. A 1 pip spread with a 20 pip stop is 0.05R. The calculator includes that cost when working out your break-even win rate and edge.
How do I find my real win rate?
Backtest your strategy across historical trades using the entries, stops and targets you would actually take. Traders Casa bar replay records every trade as you test, so you can calculate your win rate from your own results. Bar replay is free on every plan.
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Find your real win rate
Backtest on TradingView powered charts and let your results answer it. Unlimited sessions are included on the free plan.